Board Thread:General Discussion/@comment-24577221-20140308040843/@comment-24145588-20140308191014

It's been explained many times in various forum threads (for example, my latest attempt). It'd probably be a useful thing for those who can understand it, but unfortunately, for a lot of people either (a) the math is more than they can handle, or (b) they simply refuse to believe how probabilities work. There's always a lot of "I believe" that trumps logic, e.g., "I believe that twenty tries seems like too much, this thing must be broken," "I believe breeding Ghazts works best between 11 and midnight," and similar.

That being said, if you want to do it, I would suggest a page called "Breeding Probabilities" and put it in the Game Mechanics category.

Important points would probably include:


 * Difference between individual attempt and cumulative probability
 * No such thing as a sure thing
 * Concrete numbers on effect of Wishing Torches, assuming they're available
 * Random means random

There's also an awful lot of "folklore" (for lack of a better word) about the effects of monster level, monster happiness, better species combinations (i.e., "one three-element is better than another for getting Ethereals"), time of day for breeding, etc.

So, yes, maybe a good idea, but be prepared for it causing as much confusion as it removes, and don't take that personally. ;-)