User blog:BunsenH/Ghazt Stats Phase 3: Wishing Torches - Report 1

I'll make this very fast.

We're into the third phase of our statistical research on the probabilites of successfully breeding a Ghazt from an Entbrat and a T-Rox. The goal of this part is to determine the effect of a single Wishing Torch.

The "minions" are using the same monsters and protocols as they did in the previous phase, since the factors they were looking at then were found not to make a difference. The breeding monsters are adjacent to each other and there is one permanently-lit Wishing Torch. Again, we've been careful to be consistent: the Entbrat is the monster selected from the left column for the Breeder, and the T-Rox is the monster from the right column. This seems unlikely to be a significant factor, but one might as well control all of the variables that one can. All of the trials are being run using the Windows version of the game. All of the "minions" are working in one big group for the moment, so we can get good statistics on this factor as quickly as possible — it's been a long-standing question how much effect the Torches have, with a lot of people curious.

Of the 2002 trials run so far in this phase, we've got 47 Ghazts, giving a success probability of (2.35 ± 0.34)%. Compare this with the success probability of (1.030 ± 0.093)% already established for this breeding combination with no Torches lit, and we see that a single Torch has increased the odds by about... well, let's call it somewhere between 1% and 1.5% for now. About what I'd guessed, but it's nice to see it confirmed.

We'll continue the current phase for another couple of months, at which time we'll probably look at how much effect 2 or 3 torches have. I expect that the effect will be linear but it will be good to check. Another thing we'll probably want to investigate is the effect of the Torches on some other breeding combination, perhaps the breeding of an Entbrat. If the success rate is, let's say 10%, with no Torches, does a single Torch add another 1%, or 10%, or ..?

Happy New Year, everyone. And thanks to the "minions" for their diligence and work.