Board Thread:General Discussion/@comment-24438583-20140123220050/@comment-7166859-20140217064120

PurpleMonsterMama wrote: Auttheum wrote: Statistically speaking, with no torches lit and a 1% chance of breeding on any given try, you will have a 25% chance after 29 attempts, 50% chance after 69 attempts, 75% chance after 138 attempts, and a 99.9% chance (practically guaranteed) after 648 attempts.

Here's what i learned in my statistics classes in grad school: If the 1% chance is independent of previous breeding attempts (which I'm assuming it is), then each time you attempt to breed an ethereal monster, you have a 1% chance of success. Your chances don't increase with the number attempts if they're independent--you'll have a 1% chance each time, whether it's your first attempt or 500th attempt. That's correct. To clarify my original post, the percentages are the cumulative percentages - after 29 attempts, there's a 25% chance of at least one of them being a Ghazt, 50% chance of at least one being a Ghazt after 69 cumulative attempts, and so on.