Board Thread:General Discussion/@comment-27117048-20151025055841/@comment-24577221-20151025155009

The usual probability of breeding a Ghazt is 1%. Boosting that to 500% is still only 5%. Add 10 torches at about 0.7% each gives you a total probability of 12%. Trying 10 times gives you about a 72% chance of breeding at least one. It doesn't take extreme bad luck to fail.

I'm a bit skeptical that the boost from the torches is that low; I still think it's more like 1%. But I haven't had time/energy to go through the more recent data. But even if it's 1%, for a total probability of 15%, you would still have only about an 80% chance of getting at least one. Failing would still not be that unlikely.