User blog:MistofMists/Breeding Project

Breeding Project
When it comes to breeding, we don't have many hard numbers in the wiki on success chances. Some research has been done into this by User:BunsenH but I want to build on that and test more variables.

Pre-Study
I started to collect data on all breeding attempts on main and alt accounts, just to get a feel for data collection and generate some hypotheses that can then be tested.

These are some of the preliminary results:
 * Epics seem to have a ~ 10% success chance with 10 Torches.
 * Epic breeding seem to have the same chance regardless of elements and breeding monsters.
 * Quads seem to succeed ~20-30% of the time, ~50-60% with 10 Torches. (Triple+Single)
 * Doubles and Triples are just as likely to be generated from a failed breeding attempt.
 * Singles are more likely.
 * Fire-hybrids are less likely.
 * Quads are much less likely.
 * Torches don't affect which monster you get on a failed breeding attempt.
 * Torches seem to work multiplicatively on Epics and Ethereals, and additive on Rares and Normals.

Preparations
With an idea of what to test, I started preparing by getting my Alt-accounts in order, getting Breeders, Mirror Islands etc. This is taking quite some time and probably won't be done for another month.

Hypothesis Selection Strategy
While I get my accounts in order, I'm looking at what simultaneous things to test. I'm thinking of 3-4 simultaneous tests, in order to keep focus and get them done in a reasonable time.

Participation
This is a closed test, and I will only be using my Alt-accounts. Any other volunteers will not be necessary. I do this in order to fully be in control of the variables, and to not have to do mid-test communication which would be a distraction.

I have a total of 11 accounts, most of which have all Mirror Islands, and a healthy supply of Diamonds, so I think I will do alright.