Board Thread:News and Announcements/@comment-26581304-20150906194347/@comment-1577342-20150913203559

I'm ringing in on this one. I have just used this session to great advantage in a "pure" environment. By that, I mean I used the same Rare X + X breeding pair for every attempt on two tracks for the each of the three 4-element rares available. I have also thrown in a few hundred diamonds to increase the case count. Also, I did this one without bothering to buy, let alone light, wish torches. Pure baseline. I'm actually doing surprisingly well. I averaged exactly 66% rares without torches. That is either really good luck, or BBB is really tweaking the numbers to get the Rares populations up. I wonder why? ;-)

My resulting opinion is that the code generates a single pseudorandom number. We should all remember that all possible outcomes of any event must total 100%. It isn't necessary to split the event into two stages. For the case I used, Rare X + X, there is no breed option. It must be an X. If the chance of a Rare X versus a normal X is 30%, then 1-30 produces a Rare X, while 31-100 nets a normal X.

In the more complex case of X2 + Y2, with the 2 representing the element count, the outcome pool is expanded to include the two possible parent breeds X2 and Y2, as well as the target Z4 and Rare Z4. For this case, let's say the chance of getting a Z4 is 40%, that the chance of a Rare Z4 is 30% of all Z4's, and that the chances of either 2-element parent breed are equal. That means that a Rare Z4 is 1-12 (30% of 40% is 12%), 13-40 nets a normal Z4 (the rest of the overall 40% chance of a Z4), 41-70 gets X2, and 71-100 gets Y2.

In the last case X1 + Y3, the only changes are to the outcomes related to "failed" breeding that produces a parent breed. In those cases, the chance of producing either parent breed is no longer equal. For our example, I will say that the chance of getting the 1-element breed is twice as likely as getting the 3-element breed. That means our Z4 ranges are the same, but the ranges for the failed breeding change: Rare Z4 1-12, normal Z4 13-40, X1 41-80 (2/3 of the failed range), Y3 81-100 (the remaining 1/3 of the failed range).

The most complex outcomes in the game, where the parent breeds themselves may produce rares, simply further divide the relevant failed ranges. It all happens with a single pseudorandom drawn number. Any other process that splits the operation into multiple draws or events just makes the final chances harder to calculate and manage.

Regarding the benefit of pairings where the parents have differing numbers of elements, everything I have seen and experienced leads me to believe that the 1-3 pairings are more economical of breeding times, and therefore produce a slightly higher number of rares in the limited time that rares are possible. The odds don't change for any single breeding, but you might be able to start an extra breeding or two in the same week or weekend.

Disclaimer: All of the percentages selected for examples are purely made up, but the logic and math are real and provable. Your mileage doesn't matter in my car.