User blog comment:Abedshark10/daily roll/@comment-24577221-20160811164615/@comment-24577221-20160815040304

As I said, it's the same calculation as for the uncertainties in our Entbrat breeding experiment. In turn, it's a minor modification of the calculations as done in the Ghazt breeding. The derivation is here.

My M.Sc. project was about the outcomes of simulated chemical reactions which could end up in a variety of states, including the uncertainties on the relative proportions of those outcomes. That math is just about the same as what I've done here.