Thread:Jkalm/@comment-24577221-20150313023719/@comment-24577221-20150314014159

Jkalm wrote: Here's the problem. Evac156 wrote, "Your chance of 70 consecutive failures is (0.99 ^ 70) = 0.4948, so you have a 49.48% chance of failing 70 times." But that's not the way the formula works. What it should really say is, "After 69 consecutive failures, your chance for a 70th consecutive failure is (0.99 ^ 70 = 0.4948), so you have a 49.48% chance of failing on your 70th attempt." No. That's simply wrong. After 69 consecutive failures, your chance for failure on the 70th try is 0.99. Assuming that each try is independent, of course. All of the rest of your essay is wrong in the same way.

Probability always has to account for the worst case scenario, while statistics describes what is most likely.

I can't parse this in any meaningful way. No. You're not using the words "probability" and "statistics" in their usual ways.