Board Thread:General Discussion/@comment-24577221-20140418165437/@comment-24577221-20140418184338

Evac156 wrote:

What I've seen (and of course, there's probably some perceptual bias here) is that when breeding semi-rare (four-element, Shugafam, and Special Occasion) and very rare (Ethereal) monsters, successes always seem to come in batches. I'm hoping to get reliable records of a few thousand trials of Entbrat/T-Rox. That should let me do some decent data analysis. By my understanding of the calculations of variance for pass/fail Monte-Carlo-type trials, if the odds really are around 1%, the statistics would come out to be something like (1 &plusmn; 0.3)% for 1000 trials, or (1 &plusmn; 0.1)% for 10,000 trials.

I'm (slowly) working on a blog entry about this. I hope to make it understandable to people who haven't, you know, taken a few extra math classes. If possible, understandable to people whose math doesn't go much beyond a sense of the likely results of rolling a pair of dice.