User blog:BunsenH/Ghazt stats 2

This evening, the "minions" and I hit our next milestone: 2004 Ghazt breeding attempts recorded in detail. Our procedures are the same as before: the T-Rox and Entbrat both at Level 4 and 0% happiness, with those monsters immediately beside each other.

Of the 2004 tries, 18 produced Ghazts. This gives a success probability of (0.90 ± 0.21)%, the same as before except for reducing the uncertainty by a factor of approximately  &radic; 2.

The two sub-groups are the same as before. In the first, in which the player level is pushed as high as possible by XP from food production, the levels are now all 19 or 20. This group has 1313 breeding tries and 8 Ghazts bred, a probability of success of (0.61 ± 0.21)%. This is essentially unchanged from the previous value. In the other group, the player levels are kept at 11, the lowest possible for breeding a Ghazt. This group now has 691 breeding tries and 10 Ghazts bred, a success probability of (1.45 ± 0.45)%. That's down from before, but well within the limits of uncertainty, especially given the small number of tries in this subgroup before.

I don't know enough about statistics to know when it's reasonable to say that the difference between the groups is statistically significant, but it does seem a bit large to be purely random. I don't have enough successes to be comfortable with analyzing a plot of them as a function of time. But a quick glance at the dates shows another tight cluster of them hatched four days ago, which means that they would have been "started" about four days before that.

The breeding continues...