User blog:BunsenH/Ghazt stats 1

This morning, the minions and I passed a milestone: 1003 Ghazt breeding attempts recorded in detail. (I decided to discard the first couple of hundred tries, since the data seemed to have been "contaminated" by an artificial boost to the Ethereal breeding probabilities.)

All of the attempts were done with both the T-Rox and Entbrat at Level 4 and 0% happiness, with those monsters immediately beside each other.

Of the 1003 tries, 9 produced Ghazts. This gives a probability of (0.90 &plusmn; 0.30)%. (The calculation of the standard deviation is described here.)

There are two sub-groups. In the first, the player level was pushed as high as possible by XP from food production — at this point, mostly levels 17 to 19. In the second, the player level was kept at 11 (the lowest possible level to have an Entbrat, because of the XP generated by placing it). The second group was started later, so has fewer breeding tries.

The higher-level group has 798 breeding tries, of which 5 produced Ghazts. This gives a probability of (0.63 &plusmn; 0.28)%. The lower-level group has 205 breeding tries, of which 4 produced Ghazts. This gives a probability of (2.0 &plusmn; 1.0)%.

The relative uncertainties for the sub-groups are rather high, because of the smaller numbers of tries. The work continues.

There are, of course, many other possible variables. I'm not going to worry about them... yet.