Board Thread:General Discussion/@comment-24438583-20140123220050/@comment-7166859-20140214173158

Statistically speaking, with no torches lit and a 1% chance of breeding on any given try, you will have a 25% chance after 29 attempts, 50% chance after 69 attempts, 75% chance after 138 attempts, and a 99.9% chance (practically guaranteed) after 648 attempts.