User blog:BunsenH/Ghazt stats Phase 2, report 2

This is the second report on the second phase of our statistical research on the probabilites of successfully breeding a Ghazt from an Entbrat and a T-Rox.

There aren't a lot of differences from the previous report apart from the larger sample size.

Of the 4595 trials run so far in this phase, we've got 45 Ghazts, giving a success probability of (0.98 ± 0.15)%. In the group with Level 4 monsters, 100% happy, we've got 2285 tries giving 21 Ghazts, a probability of (0.92 ± 0.20)%; in the group with Level 15 monsters, 0% happy, we've got 2310 tries giving 24 Ghazts, a probability of (1.04 ± 0.21)%. The differences are not statistically significant. We're still not seeing any support for the MSM Facebook page assertion that "feeding your breeding monsters to higher levels boosts your chances of getting rare monster" [sic].

If I combine these results with those of Phase 1, we've got an overall probability of (1.023 ± 0.10)%.

A couple of the "minions" still have a couple of weeks to go before they'll have enough diamonds to permanently light a Wishing Torch. At that point, everyone will switch over to finding out what the effect of one Torch is.