Board Thread:General Discussion/@comment-24438583-20140123220050/@comment-7326455-20140214201420

I did all those fun binomial probability calculations on my blog way back when the Ghazt first came out. Unfortunately, when I started getting messages like "wait, I've made umpteen attempts and still haven't gotten one!", I realised that it was probably just confusing people. =P

Also, in practice, it's not actually all that useful. Sure, it tells you that you can reasonably expect to get one within the next seventy attempts, but once you've made seventy attempts and haven't gotten one, all it can tell you is "well... just try another seventy". =)